Since March, international oil prices have risen rapidly and then quickly fell, and then rebounded again. Affected by this, the market price of PTA also experienced a surge and then a rebound. During this period, although changes in supply and demand fundamentals have a weaker impact on the current market than on the cost side. However, we still cannot ignore the support brought by our own supply and demand fundamentals to the market. Next, we will learn more about the recent changes in fundamentals.

PTA's main factories focus on overhauling and the epidemic situation is not smooth, and the supply side is tight

Recently, Ningbo Yisheng’s 2 million-ton unit was shut down for maintenance on February 10, and has not been restarted yet; Honggang Petrochemical’s 1.5 million-ton unit was shut down for maintenance on March 16 and has not been restarted yet; Yangzi Petrochemical’s 600,000-ton unit was shut down in March Overhauled on the 14th, and planned to restart in early May; Dushan Energy’s 2.2 million-ton plant was shut down on March 18, with a period of about 7-10 days; Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.5 million-ton plant was shut down for maintenance on March 10, with a period of about 20 days . The 1 million-ton unit of Sichuan Energy Investment was overhauled on the evening of March 4 and resumed production on March 14; Yizheng Petrochemical's 350,000-ton unit was overhauled on March 1 and restarted on March 21; Yisheng New Materials 1# 3.3 million The ton device was shut down for maintenance on February 9, and has been gradually increased to full capacity recently. In the later period, some PTA devices still have centralized maintenance. Up to now, the domestic PTA operating rate has remained at 76.34%.

With the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the strong rise in raw material PX, and the pressure on the cost side, PTA processing fees will hit record lows in 2022, and the production profits of enterprises will be greatly compressed. However, the oil price has rebounded after the recent fall, superimposed on the centralized maintenance of PTA enterprises and the reduction of contract supply, the market price of PTA has rebounded rapidly, and the processing fee has been repaired to a certain extent. At present, the theoretical processing fee of PTA enterprises remains at 339 yuan/ton. If the processing fee continues to be repaired, it cannot be ruled out that the restart of the PTA parking device in the early stage and the planned maintenance of the device are delayed. Therefore, the overall destocking pattern of PTA may be improved.

Downstream demand encounters "double high", and the demand outlook is not optimistic

Downstream polyester factories experienced power outages from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2021. Many polyester factories did not arrange maintenance during the Spring Festival this year, resulting in a high operating rate in the industry. As of now, polyester construction has remained at 92.1%. On the other hand, in the weaving market, most downstream textile and weaving enterprises have resumed work in a centralized manner, and the resumption enterprises have fully invested in the production process. However, the number of new orders is relatively scarce, and due to factors such as the delayed return of migrant workers, most downstream users are only operating at a low level. Up to now, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 67%.

Under the high start of polyester production, the supply is high but the terminal demand is weak. At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic, shipments at the origin are blocked, the polyester production and sales performance is light, and the inventory of polyester products increases rapidly. It is understood that the overall inventory of polyester filaments is 22-26 days, of which POY inventory is 22-28 days, FDY inventory is 19-22 days, and DTY inventory is 23-26 days. The overall inventory of polyester staple fiber is about 0-3 days. High inventory combined with weak production and sales also suppressed the enthusiasm of polyester factories to purchase raw materials, resulting in slow market transactions.

On the whole, PTA equipment has been intensively repaired recently, and the supply of PTA has shrunk. However, the PTA processing fee has been repaired to a certain extent. Thanks to this boost, it is not ruled out that the PTA repair equipment in the previous period will resume successively, so the pattern of depotting may be improved. Under the influence of the epidemic, the downstream market is not prosperous in the peak season. Even if the closure is lifted, it is difficult to make up for the peak season gap of some businesses. After the peak season, the market demand is not expected to be optimistic. Therefore, the PTA market may have a strong trend in the short term, but the long-term market may be weak.

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