On June 15, Zheng cotton main contract oscillated within the day, and finally fell 0.21%, closing at 16,770 yuan/ton. Cotton prices rose, cotton yarn prices rose less, yarn spot overall loss.

Some textile enterprises choose a holiday to maintain stability

This weekend, a cotton mill along the river in Anhui province will open a 10-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday mode, which is the factory in response to the immediate loss of yarn to take a helpless move.

Zhengzhou cotton futures main contract price since the first few trading days in early June, 1500 yuan to 17,000 yuan/ton high, recently has been in a high state of shock, cotton mills to buy cotton costs rose sharply; At the same time, cotton prices rose and cotton yarn prices rose too small, resulting in yarn immediate overall loss. Many cotton mills due to slow procurement led to raw cotton inventories fell to a new low, a few factories had to choose a holiday.

It is understood that the current factory price of 3128 grade Xinjiang cotton is nearly 18,000 yuan/ton, and the loss per ton of cotton yarn produced is generally more than 1,000 yuan/ton. Some factories do not want to accept immediate losses, they stop buying high-priced cotton, as raw cotton stocks are getting lower and lower, they have to choose a holiday. If the yarn immediate loss situation is not improved, it is expected that the factory will choose to reduce shifts, rotation, and more and more enterprises will have uninterrupted holidays.

Recently, domestic textiles are in the downstream demand off-season, there are signs of accumulation of inventory, due to insufficient orders, May cotton textile export data poor restriction cotton prices. At present, the fundamentals of Zheng cotton as a whole stable operation, the market is generally expected that the domestic cotton inventory in Xinjiang will be tight, the New Year cotton in the area, the expected decline in per unit yield and the delay of listing estimates, the price formed a certain support. At present, although the downstream market has gradually entered the off-season market, it is still in a benign state of operation from the perspective of the opening probability of textile enterprises and the inventory of finished products. In terms of downstream textile factories, the overall continuation of the light atmosphere, the difficulty of shipping has increased, and the use is based on orders. Although the current downstream market has not driven the price rise, the drag effect has not been reflected.

The downstream kinetic energy is insufficient, and then the upstream "shutdown tide"

Last week, with the completion of the phased delivery of some seasonal orders in May, and the high inventory pressure of regular road goods, the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machine once again turned downward, down 3% last week. The comprehensive start of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased to 71% : water jet weaving started around 80% in Wujiang, 90% in Changxing, and 80% in northern Jiangsu; Warp knitting machine started about 80% Haining, Changshu around 5%; Great round machine started Xiaoshao, Changshu are 4-5%.

At the same time, the load of supporting Jiangsu and Zhejiang ammunition decreased by 1%, and the comprehensive construction of Jiangsu and Zhejiang ammunition dropped to 82% : 8-9% in Xiao Shao; Changxing 90% lower; Changshu 80% near; Around Cixi 80%; Taicang 80% slightly lower. The starting load of the bomb is less than the weaving end, mainly because the stocking of the bomb link is relatively more, the bomb factory is low and the raw material digestion period is 5-10 days.

Recently released textile and clothing export data is also relatively weak, the US dollar in May textile and clothing exports of 25.32 billion US dollars, down 13.1%, down 1.3%, of which textile exports of 12.02 billion US dollars, down 14.2%, down 5.6%, clothing exports of 13.3 billion US dollars, down 12.2%, an increase of 3%. Even weaker in terms of data are textiles.

In the future market, the trend is expected to weaken in the season, and there are sporadic or some autumn and winter weaving sheets as stock. After the sampling of some autumn and winter orders in May, some market participants may have the idea of stocking a small amount of goods in June and July, such as the relative volume of German velvet products this week. However, these sporadic stock orders are difficult to change the overall high inventory pressure of weaving, and under the difficulty of shipping conventional products, the comprehensive expectation is that the loom load will fall from a high level in June, and the average monthly load will drop to near 68%.

While the terminal load falls back, the filament load and polyester load also gradually peak. Last week, the filament load increased to 83.2%, of which direct spinning load 87.5%, polyester load 92.8%, basically in the same period of relatively high operation, further high kinetic energy has been insufficient, downstream negative feedback has begun.

Downstream demand is insufficient, upstream "shutdown tide" again.

Since May, a number of listed chemical companies have issued maintenance and parking announcements, and the chemical industry has again lifted the "shutdown tide". Among them, Jiangsu Thorp Chemical, Wanhua Chemical, Kemet Gas, Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical and other listed companies issued announcements to announce parking maintenance or load reduction. In fact, since the beginning of this year, the chemical industry has begun to announce parking maintenance, which is the opposite of the off-season maintenance in the first half of previous years.

At present, the arrival of the chemical industry "shutdown wave" is mainly due to two parts. On the one hand, for most chemicals, the peak season in the first half of the year is in Jinsanyin four, after the peak season has passed, the second quarter itself is the seasonal off-season, the traditional maintenance period; On the other hand, in recent years, the chemical industry has set off a boom in production, and the capacity growth of most chemicals is relatively large, but the downstream is facing a recovery that is not as expected. In order to insure the price, the maintenance of chemical enterprises this year is obviously more than normal times in previous years, especially some small and medium-sized devices are facing long-term profit losses, and the construction of various varieties of chemical industry is at a lower position.

The reporter observed that this year's chemical multi-market operating rate is much lower than in previous years. From the start performance of listed varieties in May, the start rate of PPin May was 81.29%, which was at a historical low in the same period; Pta started less than 75% of the month in May, at the bottom of the same period in history; Most of the rest of the chemicals are also much the same, starting at a low position, from the follow-up maintenance plan, the situation of low start or will continue.

With the large-scale operation of upstream refineries in recent years, especially the operation of integrated units, the pattern of many chemicals has undergone great changes, and overcapacity in the supply side area. At the same time, although the current demand has been improved to a certain extent, but the macro sentiment at home and abroad is not good, the recovery of demand is limited, and the downstream is not supported, making most of the chemical products started this year compared with previous years, basically at the bottom of the historical period.

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